20 years of climate normals, not a forecast — here's how much October–December typically shifts in 12 major US cities, and which ones barely move.
A seasonal outlook usually means a forecaster’s best guess at what’s coming. This isn’t that. We pulled 20 years of climate normals for 12 major US cities and measured something more concrete: how much the typical high temperature actually moves across October–December — the real, historical shape of the season, not a prediction of this particular year.
The Method, Briefly
For each city, we compared the Q4 normal high temperature in October against December, using the same 20-year archive normals (getAllMonthsClimateNormals) that power this site’s month-by-month travel pages. The “swing” is just that difference — a bigger number means the season turns over faster in that city; a smaller number means it holds steady.
The Ranking
| City | October normal high | November normal high | December normal high | Swing | Avg. rainy days (quarter) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago, Illinois | 61°F | 48°F | 37°F | -24°F | 38 |
| Columbus, Ohio | 65°F | 51°F | 42°F | -23°F | 37 |
| Denver, Colorado | 65°F | 52°F | 42°F | -23°F | 22 |
| Detroit, Michigan | 61°F | 47°F | 38°F | -23°F | 40 |
| Indianapolis, Indiana | 65°F | 51°F | 42°F | -23°F | 36 |
| Baltimore, Maryland | 67°F | 55°F | 46°F | -21°F | 35 |
| Boston, Massachusetts | 62°F | 51°F | 41°F | -21°F | 37 |
| Dallas, Texas | 79°F | 67°F | 59°F | -20°F | 27 |
| Austin, Texas | 82°F | 70°F | 63°F | -19°F | 29 |
| Charlotte, North Carolina | 72°F | 61°F | 54°F | -18°F | 29 |
| Houston, Texas | 81°F | 71°F | 65°F | -16°F | 38 |
| Jacksonville, Florida | 79°F | 71°F | 67°F | -12°F | 32 |
What Stands Out
Chicago, Illinois sees the largest shift — 24°F cooler from October to December on average. Jacksonville, Florida barely moves — just 12°F across the same span, the steadiest quarter on this list.
What This Doesn’t Tell You
These are 20-year averages, not a prediction for this specific Q4. A normal is a useful baseline for planning months out — booking travel, budgeting for heating or cooling — but it won’t tell you what next Tuesday looks like. For that, check the 7-day forecast for your city.
We’ll revisit this each quarter as the underlying normals dataset gets used more broadly across the site.